By James Painter
Latin America analyst
Climate change experts in North and South America are increasingly worried
by the potentially devastating implications of higher estimates for possible sea
The Americas have until now been seen as less vulnerable than other parts of
the world like low-lying Pacific islands, Vietnam or Bangladesh.
But the increase in the ranges for anticipated sea level rises presented at a
meeting of scientists in Copenhagen in March has alarmed observers in the
Parts of the Caribbean, Mexico and Ecuador are seen as most at risk. New York
City and southern parts of Florida are also thought to be particularly
A November 2008 study by UN-Habitat on the world’s cities pointed out that in
most Caribbean island states, 50% of the population lives within 2km (1.2 miles)
of the coast. They would be directly affected by sea level rise and other
The Bahamas, the Guyanas, Belize and Jamaica have been pin-pointed by the
World Bank as being particularly at risk from a one-metre rise.
The coastal plains around the city of Guayaquil in Ecuador, the country’s
main economic hub, are also known to be vulnerable to a combination of sea level
rises, storms and sea surges.
New York would see an additional rise of about 20cm (7.8in) above the global
mean due to Amoc by the turn of the century, according to Dr Yin’s research
published this year in the journal, Nature Geoscience. Florida would experience
less than 10cm (3.9in).
“A one-metre rise could be a disaster for parts of Florida, particularly in
the southern part of the state,” Dr Yin told the BBC.
“Sea level rise superimposed on hurricane vulnerability makes for a very
Many scientists stress that it is not too late to mitigate the possible
“We need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to reduce coastal
developments,” Dr Yin says.